The Met predicts normal monsoon (aveholidayhome.com)

The Met predicts normal monsoon

The weather gods may yet again be in a benign mood this year, if the forecast for the southwest monsoon rainfall — June to September 2012 — fructifies.

According to the India Meteorological Department, the precipitation during the ensuing season is likely to be 99% of the long period average of 890 mm, with an error margin of +/-5%.If all goes well, we are heading for a good agricultural season for the third year in a row.

In quantitative terms, the precipitationduring these four months works out to nearly 880 mm; this compares favourably with the 2011 season’s890 mm.A deviation of 5% on either side is nothing to worry about as it will still imply a copious monsoon.

However, the forecast warns that there is a probability of 24% of the rainfall falling in the below normal range of 90 -96% of the long-period average (LPA) but the probability of it being in excess of normal (above 110%) or deficient (below 90%) is low at less than 10%.

Reassuring though this optimistic assessment of the ensuing southwest monsoon is, two caveats are in order. One, the forecast now issued and the second one to be releasedin June, do not saymuch about the distribution of rainfall.

More than the quantum, it is the spreadthat matters from the point of agricultural production. In the 2011 season, the total rain during the four months ended September, at 101% of the LPA, was less than the 102% of the LPA in 2010. Yet, foodgrain production had surged by 8 million tonne to a record 252.56 million tonne in 2011-12.

Rice, wheat and cotton are likely to scale new peaks.This is attributable to opportune and abundant showers in June 2011 (112% of the LPA for the month), in August (110%) and in September (106%). These spells offset the 15% deficit in the July rainfall. Region-wise, barring the north-east, all the rest had normal rains during the June- September 2011 period.

Two, the IMD’s forecasts are prone to go wrong, given the complex nature of the exercise and the continental dimensions of our country. In 2011, for example, the Met was proved to be more often wrong than right - seven out of ten forecasts were falsified by the actual turn of events. In fact, in its end-of-the season report on south west monsoon 2011, it had admitted to have erred in this respect.

“Most of the operational long range forecasts issued for the southwest monsoon rainfall were under-estimating the actual rainfall and, therefore, were not very accurate.”

But, the more important point to note is that, Indian agriculture has acquired a resilience to better cope with the vagaries of the monsoon. This was demonstrated by the fact, during 2009, the rainfall recorded during the southwest monsoon period had dipped to the lowest ever in the post-Independent period to 698.2 mm, or 22% below the long period average. Yet, our foodgrain production was sustained at a relatively high level of 218 million tonne, thanks to more area under irrigation and improved farm practices.

Reassuring still is the fact, that rabi season is now accounting for an increasingly large share of foodgrainoutput as it is the kharif crop, sown with the onset of the monsoon, is liable to be more vulnerable if weather gods play truant.Of course, problem areas exist such as coarse grains, pulses and oilseeds, but overall, farm sector has obtained a measure of immunity from weather aberrations.

In this sense, the forecast of an average monsoon in the agricultural year that is ahead, is heartening. But, even with a sub-normal season characterised by less than adequate rains, the farm outlook can be good if the precipitation turns out to be good over time and space.

The IMD forecast is indicative, not definitive and should be viewed as an attempt to unravel one of the monsoon which can still make or mar our farm fortunes.

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