The apparently rapid pace of nuclear developments in India and Pakistan has led many analysts to warn of an impending arms race between the
two countries. India and Pakistan are indeed entangled in a long-standing
security competition. However, they are not two closely matched opponents
engaged in a competitive tit-for-tat cycle of nuclear weapons development in
which one state makes advancements to its nuclear capability and the other
reacts in kind.
An analysis of aggregated missile test data since 1998 reveals
that the armament dynamic is far more complex. The Indian and Pakistani nuclear
programs are largely decoupled. The data show little correlation between the
adversaries’ testing behavior contrary to what would be expected in a classic
arms race. In fact, the types and ranges of missiles under development provide
concrete evidence of the divergence in their nuclear objectives and security
strategies.
Veerapagupathy,
Chothavilai Beach,
Thengamputhoor,
Kanyakumari.
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